November 6, 2025. Shanghai –The latest event in the CEIBS Global EMBA programme’s China and the World series took place on our Shanghai campus today to explore China’s evolving role as a global market, trading partner and investor. Across two keynote speeches and a panel discussion, it set out to answer a crucial question about the future: will we see more bridges built to connect China with the rest of the world? Or will more walls be raised to separate the two?
Kicking off the event, CEIBS Associate Dean and Director of the Global EMBA Programme Bala Ramasamy welcomed guest speakers, faculty representatives and an assembled audience of 60, reminding them of the unpredictable nature of modern global business, and the rising need for mutual trust and understanding.
“At CEIBS, our mission is to build bridges between nations, between industries and between people,” said Prof. Ramasamy. “However, we must acknowledge that there also walls that divide us. In times of uncertainty, such walls tend to grow taller. Our task today is to examine the bridges and walls, and help you, the audience, determine your strategy to navigate both effectively.”
Opening addresses – Harsh realities breed tough choices
In her opening address, CEIBS President Wang Hong noted
“Today, enterprises face unprecedented challenges and key choices regarding their positioning both within the global market and China's domestic market. Whether to build a stronger economic bridge between China and the global market, or to pause in the face of increasing barriers to trade, is a choice that every business leader needs to ponder. These are not easy questions to address, and we hope today’s conversation helps you answer them,” said President Wang.
In his welcome remarks, CEIBS Vice President and Dean Frank Bournois also underlined how a harsh turn in geopolitics has added to the complexity of modern international business, giving rise to an assumed need for higher, stronger walls in many cases.
“Trade is the world’s natural bridge builder, but the desire for an exchange of goods and services only goes so far,” Prof. Bournois warned. “To build bridges that last, we must encourage mutual understanding and cultural exploration, not just commerce. Where bridges enable movement, walls sacrifice it in favour of providing protection, real or perceived. Our work is to favour bridges – to build them, and to encourage others to do likewise.”
Keynote Speech One – The great US/China shake-up
The event’s main agenda was then delivered in three parts. The first keynote speech, delivered by CEIBS Distinguished Professor and Former Director General of the World Trade Organization (WTO) Pascal Lamy, outlined the current macro picture for China’s geopolitical and geoeconomic situation, with a central focus on the intensifying US/China rivalry.
“Whether we like it or not,” Prof. Lamy began, “the rivalry between China and the US has a huge influence on the international order of things today. It is creating more uncertainty, it is tipping the balance more towards geopolitical considerations than geoeconomic ones, and that means more walls, fewer bridges.”
Prof. Lamy explained how, after decades of increasing openness, major global economies have begun a slow swing back towards the prioritisation of security over market access. Domestic manufacturing capabilities, trade imbalances, control of critical resources and technologies – these issues of long-term national security are leading to the phased decoupling between China and the US.
“The reason for rising tensions between these two countries is that they share the same level of ambition – they both want to be the most dominant global economy, and the most influential power worldwide. They both want to be number one, and that makes each side feel threatened by the other,” said the professor.
These growing security concerns dominate current political feeling in Washington and Beijing. What was considered a positive interdependence 10-15 years ago is now viewed as a dangerous overdependence by both sides. The resulting tide of tariff warfare, technology embargoes and varying levels of political rhetoric levied in both directions is reshaping the US/China relationship, but it is also impacting on trade relations between nations across the world.
“Fortunately, the world has not yet followed the US’ lead and spiralled into all-out tariff warfare. Global trade volumes are still increasing, and they will continue to do so despite this increased global uncertainty,” Prof. Lamy predicted. “But, the US-China rivalry has forced every country, big and small, to evaluate its trade links, to avoid overreliance on one single partner, and to seek out new markets and relationships where possible.”
In closing, Prof. Lamy highlighted that both bridges and walls are necessary in this new global trade landscape of decoupling and realignment. What is most important, in his view, is that every nation is free to build their bridges and walls confident that a strong rules-based international trade system will provide fairness and transparency for everyone involved.
“The benefits of fairness, openness and due process can be seen in how China and the European Union have adopted a parallel dispute resolution system in the WTO,” explained Prof. Lamy. “Both parties have stuck to a way to resolve disputes through a judge ruling on a point of law, not who has the biggest stick at that given moment. That’s how you reduce uncertainty and encourage mutually beneficial trade.”
Keynote Speech Two – “Adding value” is the key to succeeding overseas
Then followed a second keynote, delivered by CEIBS Professor of Strategy and Entrepreneurship Daniel Chng. It provided some practical recommendations for companies looking to expand into and out of China during this period of increasing global complexity and tension.
With the macro picture established by Prof. Lamy, Prof. Chng added a layer of practical insights and recommendations for multinational companies looking to create or hold a position in China, as well as Chinese companies preparing for ”chuhai” (going overseas).
“The fundamental reasons that MNCs aim to establish themselves in China haven’t changed – competitive cost advantages in manufacturing, strong integrated supply chains, and a huge, valuable consumer market. These pull factors remain in place, but some are muted compared to 20 years ago. Equally, the rising tide of trade restrictions and export controls means that it is no longer viable to place all your eggs in a single ‘China basket’. We’re seeing a shift towards ‘China plus N’ as companies, and even whole countries, look to diversify, de-risk and strike a more balanced approach to their partnerships in response to various geopolitical factors,” said the professor.
“China plus N” – the strategy in which companies with significant operations in China establish additional manufacturing and supply chain operations in at least one other country – also extends to headquartering, he added. The professor highlighted how Vietnam, India, Indonesia, and Mexico have experienced a surge of interest in terms of offshore manufacturing capability, while Singapore is rapidly regaining ground as a premier location for the HQs of huge multinational enterprises.
“15 years ago, these HQs shifted to China. Around five years ago, they shifted back to Singapore,” noted Prof. Chng. “Why did this happen? Because China is still a critical market, but it is no longer the optimal platform from which international brands will base their launch into Asia. They are now thinking: Let’s be ‘In China for China’, not, ‘In China, for the world’. Headquartering in Singapore now offers the kind of geopolitical simplicity that China simply does not. Avoiding conflict, rebalancing risk and opportunity, this is what is driving MNCs to make these strategic shifts.”
Prof. Chng then drew the audience’s attention to the growing trend of top-tier MNCs suffering major market share losses in China to local competitors, often prompting complete withdrawals from the country.
At its peak, Starbucks – the “creator of Chinese coffee culture” – held an estimated 36 % of the total China market share. Today it maintains around 14%, and earlier this month the company sold a massive 60% stake in its China business as part of a $4 billion deal with investment firm Boyu Capital. Meanwhile, local competitor Luckin Coffee has steadily grown from a low base of 3% to encapsulate 32% of China’s total coffee market.
“Wherever you look, there are similar examples,” said Prof. Chng. “Tesla has dropped from 15% of the China EV market to 5%, while BYD went from 2.3% to 31% in a similar timeframe. These proportions are changing because Chinese companies are increasingly able to meet Chinese consumers’ evolving preferences. We’re now seeing the emergence of China-centric brands, built on Chinese culture and heritage, using Chinese materials, and promoting Chinese stories.”
For MNCs to successfully break into the China market, or hold their existing market share, they must be able to connect with their Chinese audience on this level. The professor cited French personal care multinational L’Oréal as a prime example.
He explained that L’Oréal has continued to perform well in China because it commits to developing local brands and products for Chinese customers, invest in local manufacturing, supply chain, and talents, pursues an aggressive omnichannel and digital strategy in key Chinese social media platforms while remaining nimble enough to spot emerging trends.
“None of this is completely unique to China,” the Prof. Chng added. “Whether you’re an MNC coming into China or a Chinese company going global, succeeding overseas requires you to add value to that new location. It’s not enough to arrive with a good product; to remain relevant and profitable you must ensure that you are a net positive by investing in local talent, creating local opportunities and connecting with local audiences.”
Panel Discussion – How can we build bridges that endure?
Wrapping up the event, Prof. Ramasamy moderated a panel discussion with both speakers to expand on key points from their speeches and allow questions from the audience.
Setting the scene, he said: “The Golden Arches rule is that two countries in which McDonalds operates could never go to war, because trade ensures peace,” he said. “However, recent history tells us that even deeply interconnected economies can face conflict. Golden arches clearly do not guarantee a golden peace. So, how can we build bridges that will endure even when politics divides us?"
Prof. Lamy pointed towards the positives that can be seen in the enduring strength of global trade institutions. While the dominant US politics of the Trump second administration favour protectionism, global trade administered according to WTO rules remains between 70-75%, meaning that it still represents a binding force for a rules-based international order.
“The WTO could certainly benefit from a measure of reform,” Prof. Lamy admitted. “It can be ignored or undermined, as the US so frequently demonstrates. But it still demonstrates how trade and trust can flourish between nations when both sides agree to be bound by international rules and accepted norms. Strengthening these international bodies is one way to ensure our global bridges endure.”
Prof. Chng noted the crucial role played by individual companies, alongside major international bodies. When firms conduct overseas business with a genuine respect for their hosts, their presence can help develop the stabilising effect enshrined in the Golden Arches theory, as they enable the development of cultural as well as commercial links. Rather than thinking purely in terms of extracting profits and building influence, companies should be looking to develop mutually beneficial partnerships from the moment they arrive.
“Companies going overseas must go with a mindset of being responsible players. They need to respect shared international rules, find the right local partners and engage with the local government and consumer audience. In short, they can strengthen their bridges by adding the same kind of value that China expects of its MNC entrants,” Prof. Chng said.
Walls may rise, but the need to build bridges has never been greater
Prof. Ramasamy ended the event with a final question to both guest speakers: “Looking ahead, will there be more bridges or walls between China and the World?”
Prof. Cheng responded with: “The walls are coming up. That’s inevitable between the US and China due to their escalating rivalry. But at the commercial level, there is a lot of room for bridges to be built between firms and their customers. Plenty of smaller nations are stepping up to promote multilateralism. To really make a positive difference, China needs to communicate that it is willing to aid in that approach.”
Prof. Lamy, meanwhile, concluded with the following: “We will have more of both, because the world is becoming more unstable. The pressures of geopolitics mean that China’s friends and rivals will both try to make their (respective) bridges and walls stronger to withstand the impact of this global realignment. If we want the bridges to endure, we must find ways to better harmonise and administer trade rules to ensure that mutual interest trumps self-interest.
